Table of Contents
Introduction: Why This Isn't a Poker Book 1
Chapter 1 Life Is Poker, Not Chess 5
Pete Carroll and the Monday Morning Quarterbacks 5
The hazards of resulting 8
Quick or dead: our brains weren't built for rationality 11
Two-minute warning 16
Dr. Strangelove 18
Poker vs. chess 20
A lethal battle of wits 23
"I'm not sure": using uncertainty to our advantage 26
Redefining wrong 30
Chapter 2 Wanna Bet? 37
Thirty days in Des Moines 37
We've all been to Des Moines 41
All decisions are bets 44
Most bets are bets against ourselves 45
Our bets are only as good as our beliefs 47
Hearing is believing 49
"They saw a game" 56
The stubbornness of beliefs 59
Being smart makes it worse 62
Wanna bet? 64
Redefining confidence 67
Chapter 3 Bet to Learn: Fielding the Unfolding Future 75
Nick the Greek, and other lessons from the Crystal Lounge 75
Outcomes are feedback 78
Luck vs. skill: fielding outcomes 82
Working backward is hard: the SnackWell's Phenomenon 85
"If it weren't for luck, I'd win every one" 89
All-or-nothing thinking rears its head again 94
People watching 96
Other people's outcomes reflect on us 102
Reshaping habit 105
"Wanna bet?" redux 111
The hard way 114
Chapter 4 The Buddy System 119
"Maybe you're the problem, do you think?" 119
The red pill or the blue pill? 122
Not all groups are created equal 127
The group rewards focus on accuracy 132
"One Hundred White Castles … and a large chocolate shake": how accountability improves decision-making 135
The group ideally exposes us to a diversity of viewpoints 137
Federal judges: drift happens 141
Social psychologists: confirmatory drift and Heterodox Academy 146
Wanna bet (on science)? 149
Chapter 5 Dissent to Win 153
CUDOS to a magician 153
Mertonian communism: more is more 155
Universalism: don't shoot the message 160
Disinterestedness: we all have a conflict of interest, and it's contagious 164
Organized skepticism: real skeptics make arguments and friends 169
Communicating with the world beyond our group 172
Chapter 6 Adventures in Mental lime Travel 177
Let Marty McFly run into Marty McFly 177
Night Jerry 180
Moving regret in front of our decisions 186
A flat tire, the ticker, and a zoom lens 190
"Yeah, but what have you done for me lately?" 194
Tilt 197
Ulysses contracts: time traveling to precommit 200
Decision swear jar 204
Reconnaissance: mapping the future 208
Scenario planning in practice 213
Backcasting: working backward from a positive future 218
Premortems: working backward from a negative future 221
Dendrology and hindsight bias (or, Give the chainsaw a rest) 227
Acknowledgments 233
Notes 241
Selected Bibliography and Recommendations for Further Reading 253
Index 267
